A little bit Investing, A little bit personal

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I used to write all the time.

And then I scrapped it. 

Some thoughts on why I wish I never stopped.

1. Memories Lie

I have the memory of a Goldfish.

Well, that's not entirely true. It's not full-blown 'Dora'; it's more selective memory loss.

For example, I can remember the phone number of a guy I haven't talked to since I was 12, but my wife has to remind me of the names of the couple that live next door despite having met them at least six times. (I really hope Hannah and 'What's his face' don't read this)

This selective memory is dangerous, seeing as I make market predictions for a living.

Sometimes, these predictions are right…. Sometimes…. Not so much.

I need to analyse these bad calls and pick them apart to find the holes in my original thesis to avoid making the same miscalculations in the future.

Learn from your mistakes and all that.

But the human condition tends to lean towards self-protectionism. Your own perception of past events is not a reliable source.

Memories lie.

When you make a mistake, there's a long and persuasive monologue in your head that justifies bad decisions.

It's not a good or bad thing; it just is.

So, to push against this, keep a written record. It creates a timestamp of your thought process at a given point in time. 

Memories lie; records don't.

Often, I look back at the previous investment theses I wrote as a kid, and I cringe.

There's nothing quite as sobering as reading old predictions that I made with 100% certainty….But got 100% wrong.

It's a surefire way to castrate any theories of granger you may be harbouring about yourself.

So keep a record, if nothing else; it will allow you to see just how far you've come.

2. Surface Level Knowledge

It's hard to write this next part without sounding like a bit of a dickhead.

Anywho, here it is.

A combination of endless information, incessant headlines, and a social obsession with wanting to know something about everything has created a world where nobody really knows anything about anything anymore.

We are all just a collection of borrowed opinions. Everyone is nibbling, reading the headlines, hoping the person on the other end of the conversation doesn't want 'in-depth' answers.

But if we all just want to know a little bit about everything, we end up with no genuinely insightful opinions on anything. 

If everyone knows something about everything, it all just becomes general knowledge.

And If you're just doing what everyone else is doing, you're doing it wrong.

So, for me, I think you should lean into scarcity.

Do what others won't to set yourself apart.

Start by focusing in on one or two areas and becoming a respected expert in those things… and ignore the rest.

The way I do this is by writing.

Firstly, my brain can be a jumbled mess at times, so sitting down to write about a particular subject allows me to clarify my thoughts.

Then comes the frustrating part - writing quickly exposes just how little you know about something. As you fully research an idea, the holes in your original logic get exposed.

Writing then becomes this two way conversation with yourself where you try and untangle your own thoughts. It forces you to figure things out in order for your writing to make sense.

In the words of Jules Renard 'Writing is the best way to talk without being interrupted.'

So, find the thing you want to focus on and write about it—a lot.

Lean into the scarcity.

3. Writing Forces You to Learn

About three weeks ago, I sat down again to give this writing thing another go….and…..nada, nothing, zilch.

A blank page just laughing back at me. Writer's block, I hear you say.

Not quite.

Writer's block isn't actually a thing. Well, it is, but it's not this sudden and unexplainable loss of creativity. The reason is much more straightforward.

Writing is a by-product of hours of reading, researching, thinking, zoning out of conversations because you just thought of an absolute zinger for a piece you're writing… stuff like that.

When a morning of writing goes well, it has nothing to do with being 'in the flow'. It's just a lagging indicator of the hours you have already spent researching and thinking.

For me, writing forces me to learn. This is something I didn't really appreciate the last time I stopped.

When you know, you have investment analysis to send out, newsletters to write, and opinion pieces to post, your rate of learning increases exponentially.

Trying not to look like an idiot online can be a fantastic motivator.

So don't be afraid to put your thoughts out there.

Maybe they won't be genuinely insightful to start; perhaps you'll miss the mark with some. God knows I did.

But a frantic urge to learn will ensure you get there in the end.

 4.  You Are What You Repeatedly Do

I've never regarded myself as a good writer. Even calling myself 'A Writer' seems ridiculous. 

I write, I'm not 'A Writer'… got forbid I get lumped in with the 'self-published author' crew…. (hate to break it to you mate, but if you had to pay to publish it…you ain't an author)

That said, I do hope to be a good writer someday. I read a lot, and I always know I love the book if I get jealous of the author halfway through. 

I always know something is good when I stop and think, 'Man, I wish I wrote that.'…. It sounds odd to say out loud, but I would love to think that someone would stop and think that when reading something I had written someday.

So, to appease my future self, I have decided to write more.

Some of it will suck, and then after a while, it will suck less, and eventually…. someday…. It will actually be pretty good.

They say - If there is something you want to do, you just need to do it repeatedly until you eventually get good at it.

I hope that's true… but there is only one way to find out.

Hope you enjoyed.

I’ll be back with the usual investment ideas on Thursday 👋

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